Tuesday, May 13, 2008

What Now?

Uhm, yeah...that'll happen...I hope not.

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I'm in the Obama camp, but I think that the longer Hillary stays in the race, the better. The current buzz about how this long, painful campaign is "tearing apart" the Democratic Party is overwrought and incorrect- the American voter doesn't have much in the way of long-term memory and the intramural mudslinging of today will be forgotten by November- there are actually some very good reasons to continue the Democratic contest all the way to the end:

- Each State primary so far has seen an unprecedented registration of new voters, the majority of which lean toward the Democrats.

-More primaries=more new voters= more Democratic votes.

- One can rest assured that there is a 'Swift-Boat' style smear campaign being readied for use against Obama. Sen. Obama has done well so far, heading off any "did you inhale?" nonsense by admitting that, yeah, he got high once upon a time ( who hasn't?)...and he acquitted himself nicely on the ridiculous Reverend What's-his-name kerfluffle...but who knows what sort of dirt the GOP smear machine has unearthed?
A series of lurid sexual accusations, with or without factual basis?
A business contract or court case that left someone feeling burned,real or imagined?
A Polaroid of Obama wearing a lampshade on his head and waving a bong around?


-Whatever ammunition they will find or fabricate, the Republicans will probably keep it quiet until the Democratic nomination is decided. If a damning thing exists, the odds that it gets prematurely leaked increase the longer the campaign drags on; the sooner it gets out, the sooner the target-presumably Obama- can respond and attempt to defuse it. I can only hope that the Democrats learned a lesson from John Kerry's lose-at-any-cost strategy...

-I'm glad Hillary went 'negative' on Obama. If he can't survive an attack from the Clintons, he certainly can't survive the merciless Republican assault that will begin in earnest once the Dem race is decided. If something in his character or past makes him unelectable, let's get it out now while there's still another horse in the race.
Assuming Obama is the nominee, he can weaken any Republican regurgitation of Clinton attacks by simply accusing the GOPers of repeating the "lies" of Hillary Clinton...

If Hillary can pull out the nomination by pandering to the "hard-working white voters", then she will prove that America isn't ready for a Black President. Better we learn that lesson now than in November. It would be a bitter pill but not a surprising one.

- The polls stating that x percentage of one Democratic hopeful will not vote for the other Democrat in the national election are irrelevant. As I said, the American voters suffer from collective ADD and these polls are merely snapshots of a fleeting 'sour grapes' moment... Democrats (and Americans in general) are a lot more united in their desire to cast off the Pall of Bush than the TV talkers realize. In November, the people who voted in the primaries will support the Dem- whomever it turns out to be.

- The longer the campaign runs, the more time and consideration can be put into the Vice-Prez choice...no decision needs to be made until the nominee is official. It's impossible to deny that Clinton has the credentials for the position, but I doubt that'll happen, despite the already considerable pressure for Obama to choose her...will she accept, even if offered? Unlikely.
In any case, I doubt that adding her to the ticket will bring many independent and moderate McCain-leaning votes to the left, it may even alienate more than a few voters...Obama would be better served by choosing a moderate white male Veep, preferably one with unassailable military bona fides- former Navy Secretary and current Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA), comes to mind...retired General Wesley Clark is another.

There Is Always Hope

As Obama is prone to saying, there is hope. I hope the Republicans do something so monumentally stupid that it ruins any hope they have for the fall.
What would suffice?

Imagine this somewhat far-fetched scenario:
Obama wins and nominates Clinton as his running mate. McCain, in a vain attempt to embrace the 'diversity' vote, nominates Sec. of State Condeleeza Rice as his VP. As a result, the bigoted and/or sexist voter will have no one at all to vote for- one ticket has a black and a woman and the other party has a black woman. Stay home and watch the race on TV, skip the election...

On the downside, a McCain/Rice ticket is so abominable that it might actually win. Just in case, here's a picture of Condi dancing half-naked on the coffins of Iraq War casualties. It's obviously a fake, but so what? The 'Swift Boats for Truth' were obvious liars and they wrecked Kerry in 2004.



Don't forget to vote.

11 comments:

yellowdog granny said...

arghghghghghghghghghghghggh

Donn said...

Obama/Clinton ticket?
That Ship has sailed...Never happen.

What annoys me about this 3 year election campaign is all of the 24/7 coverage of the Pun'tits' who say the same pathetic sound bites over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and yet they call it News.

All of the campaigning over the last three years means squat anyway, because America is one Red Alert Incident away from electing McCain..
I will be absolutely astonished if he loses.

The negative slander Ads that the GOP will unleash on Obama will make you embarrased to be a human being nevermind an American citizen!

A. because of the sheer audacity of outdoing Nazi Marketing Guru Josef Goebbels on the 'bigger the Lie' strategy,
and B., because they will actually sway some voters.

I wish that I could be more optimistic but the last guy got voted in twice..TWICE!? Don't try to explain that we all know exactly what that says about 50% of Americans.

schlep said...

I also have faith in the 'ADD factor' - god but Hillary/this campaign has gotten tedious though!
Once the REAL election is underway, the contrast between Obama and McCain will be seen clearly.
It's a good point, about the positive effect of getting Democrat-leaning people registered.

As donn implies, things have been quiet on the old terrorism front lately, who knows what 'foiled plot' jack-in-the-boxes will pop up between now and November.

Cautiously optimistic - though after 2004 I will never overestimate the intelligence of our fellow citizens again.

Allan said...

JS- yeah...

Donn-
I seriously doubt that ticket will run.
McCain, in reality, has a terrible and thoroughly hypocritical record- he has no solid principals whatsoever, flip-flop is his motto...and his military record consists mainly of being tortured, a process which he now approves of...one would think he'd lose in a landslide...sadly, I fear you are correct.

Schlep- October will be surprising, I'd wager. Having someone like Clark or Webb on the ticket would help Obama.

Al-Queda loves Republicans. Terrorism is 'booming' world-wide, never been more so than now...the Iraq War was the best thing that ever happened to the Fundie Muslim crowd. If they think a bomb will elect McCain, there will be a bomb...

Donn is right. At least half of Americans are brain-dead ,willfully ignorant morons. More than half if you count those who are too lazy to vote.

citizen of the world said...

I would love to see that ticket, but I'm skepitcal.

(That picture of Condileeza is twisted.)

Canopenner said...

I think the who said it best, "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss"

billy pilgrim said...

rice looks hot.

real hot.

Susannity said...

donn said "All of the campaigning over the last three years means squat anyway, because America is one Red Alert Incident away from electing McCain.."
- What is so sad is I agree this could happen.

Rice came out and said she will not be the running mate, but who knows.

whimsical brainpan said...

You make some good points.

Love the Condi pic!

Sling said...

Are you sure the Condi pic is a fake?

lucky said...

To the owner of this blog, how far youve come?